Exit polls are quite popular in the Indian media. The completion of the voting is soon followed by exit poll results before the actual results are announced. However, the credibility and the logic behind these exit polls are frequently questioned. Often it is presented by the media in such a sensationalized way as if it was the actual election outcome. Sometimes they do not even clearly define their research methodology, with different television channels giving different results. In fact, there are some television channels in India that market their exit poll results by branding them as ‘Exact Polls’. Although on multiple occasions they have provided inaccurate and misleading results, with the numbers often appearing different in the actual results declared by the Election Commision.
This year too, the Indian broadcast media published exit poll results immediately after the final phase of voting in the Indian general election with much anticipation. However, the final mandate on the results’ day and the results projected by these exit polls were poles-apart. These exit polls made everyone believe that it was a one-sided election, and the ruling party was winning with a clear majority by crossing 370 to 400 plus seats. However, to everyone’s surprise they could not even secure the minimum numbers to form the government on its own on the counting day, and the opposition did remarkably well.
Therefore, these exit polls are often misleading, and its reliability and rationale should be questioned. Why are they even conducted, what is its objective, and are they helping anyone? Some critics say, exit polls are only beneficial for television companies as they work as a good revenue source through high viewership and advertisements. Some also feel that it is related to the stock markets to manipulate investors. Some say that it could be purposively conducted to influence the stock market performance and hike its prices. This is also evident in the statements made by the opposition leader in Rahul Gandhi who alleged that exit polls were ‘fake’ and a biggest stock market ‘scam’, due to which retail investors lost 30 lakh crores after they followed them and invested in stocks. The government has however denied this allegation.
The inaccuracy of the exit polls has even made journalists and owners of television channels question their reliability and rationale themselves. Rajat Sharma, a prominent television journalist and owner of India TV news channel recently questioned himself on a news show regarding the value of these exit polls and why the media is even spending so much money on conducting them when they don’t even give accurate results. Similarly, the public discourse observed in social media on exit polls is also not very optimistic. Distinguished novelist and thought leader Chetan Bhagat in a series of social media posts said that ‘exit poll guys’ should be looking for the ‘exit door’ after their fallacious predictions in this year’s elections. Further, he called exit polls ‘fraud’ and sought explanation from pollsters by releasing detailed data and methodology used in their study. Thus, exit polls are at the centre of negative criticism.
The recent controversy surrounding exit polls and its alleged role in share market manipulation requires serious thought. It also raises the question of whether they should really continue in the future as it does not seem to benifit anyone. Surely, they bring money to the media companies that use it as a profitable revenue source, however, at the cost of misleading and misinforming the public. There is no doubt that errors are natural part of every research, however it is the duty of every researcher to clearly mention the sample frame and the methods used in collecting the data. Although, if such surveys are purposively done to manipulate public opinion and behaviour than this is dangerous. Any type of mandate or election results should rest on the exclusive authority of the Election Commission only and not the organizers of any exit poll. It is high time to give a serious thought whether these exit polls should really exist or exit.
Also Read:India Elections: Modi Wins Third Term, Congress Led Opposition Puts A Formidable Challenge
Also Read: India Sets World Record With 642 Million Voters, Surpasses G7 And EU Nations